The Hawai’i Office of Elections (OE) and City and County Clerks routinely submit data to the Election Assistance Commission (EAC) for the EAC voter registration reports.
Here is a snapshot of the EAC data for Hawai’i from the two-year timeframe of the 2020 General Election to the 2022 General Election:
I wonder if we can use publicly available data to estimate the realistic numbers of newly registered voters and removed voters, and compare it to the reported numbers in the EAC report.
Let’s take a closer look at the Hawai’i census, vital statistics, estimated newly turned age eighteen information, and the registration data from the OE:
Interestingly, Hawai’i’s total population decreased from 2021 to 2022, while the voting age population for the same time period increased by 98,981 potential voters.
Here are the mortality numbers from the Vital Statistics department:
The number of pediatric deaths (under age 18) are low and excluded from further calculations (2020 deaths under age 18: 113; 2021 deaths under 14: 97. 2021 under 18 data not available).
Graduation Numbers:
The annual graduation numbers for Hawai’i public and private schools give an estimate of how many residents annually reach voting age.
The number of graduates statewide has ranged from 12,933-14,316 from 2000-2020. The most current data for the graduation rate is 86%.
Using this data we can estimate that 15,038-16,646 Hawai’i residents turn eighteen every year.
(Note: sixteen year olds are preregistered to vote and do not appear on the voter rolls until they turn eighteen at the time of the election).
Now let’s look at the total in and out migration for the two-year timeframe of the EAVS report:
As 2022 data is not yet published, we will need to extrapolate 2021 data for the following calculations.
Math time!
Using the above mortality numbers and voter age outmigration data trend we can estimate the number of registered voters in the two-year EAVS timeframe who should have been removed from the rolls:
(2021 & 2022 deaths + 2021 & 2022 over age 18 domestic outmigration) X 74.7%:
26,223 + 45,095 + 45,095 = 116,413 X .747 =
86,960 registered voters who SHOULD HAVE BEEN removed from the rolls
REPORTED # of removed voters: 41,308
Now let’s estimate the expected number of newly registered voters, based on voting age (over 18) domestic inmigration and the annual estimated number of residents turning eighteen. For this calculation I used the most generous number for the eighteen year olds, as well as carrying over the 2021 trend into 2022 for the inmigration number as 2022 data is not yet available:
EXPECTED estimate of new voter registrations for the EAVS two-year timeframe:
(1 year # of newly aged 18 years old x 2) + (2021 over 18 domestic inmigration # x 2) X 74.7%
33,292 + 107,422 = 140,714 X .747 = 105,113
(Remember- this number 140,714 is 100% of the voting age people in this group, historically the statewide percentage of Hawai’i residents who register to vote is in the 70s, thus the lower number of 105,113 is used).
Here are the above calculations in table format:
Fantasy Scenario:
Even if 100% of eighteen year olds obtained a drivers license at age sixteen, and 100% of them were preregistered to vote at the DMV, and 100% of newly arrived domestic residents registered to vote, that still only totals 140,714.
This scenario is completely unrealistic, as automatic voter registration was not implemented until 2021. Just this year AVR was switched to opt-out, whereas previously it was opt-in.
So why are there 151,594 new voter registrations when we only expect ~105,113?
Is this the set up for 2024?
Or has there been a sudden burst of
enthusiasm amongst Hawai’i residents to register to vote in non-Presidential election years?
Your guess is as good as mine. I wish I had the answer.
Once again, Hawai’i’s voter rolls prove to be a hotbed of mystery and intrigue, and not in a good way.
References:
1. https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/2023-10/2022_EAVS_Data_Brief_HI_508c.pdf
2. https://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/economic/databook/db2022/section01.pdf#page91
3. https://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/economic/databook/2022-individual/08/080122.pdf
4. https://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/economic/databook/2021-individual/08/080121.pdf
5. https://health.hawaii.gov/vitalstatistics/
6. https://census.hawaii.gov/home/population-estimate/
7. https://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/economic/databook/db2020/section03.pdf#page4
9. https://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/economic/databook/db2020/section03.pdf#page19
10. https://elections.hawaii.gov/resources/registration-voter-turnout-statistics/
11. https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/HI/PST045221